Probably in the handheld market (I don't count Apple and smartphones/tablets) even though the next wave of software has yet to be known. But if Vita doesn't attract more 3rd parties by the end of the year it's pretty hopeless.
I don't see Wii U succeed : the damage that Wii has done to Nintendo's image towards 3rd parties and gamers is just enormous. PS3 and 360 kept offering the best when Nintendo made casual gaming a priority. Now Wii has virtually no releases whereas PS360 delivers hit games every week. I see no reason for them to go back to Nintendo. 3rd party support is still a big question mark a this point. E3 will be crucial for that, but atm there is little support.
Also, Wii U will be marketed at a higher pricepoint than Wii (when PS3 and 360 will be 250€/$ or less), which will deter many casual gamers who don't think gaming as a priority. Anything above 299€/$ is suicide, and I reckon the technology will not make it possible to offer this level of price. Furthermore, some of them might just not feel the need to upgrade from Wii.
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