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This will largely depend on MS tactics as regards future price drops.

Any move in the UK to put the Xbox Pro at a 199 GBP price point will be hard for Sony to counter IMHO.

There will of course be bundle deals but Sony still has a lot of work to do.
MS has apparently got a war chest ready to push GTA IV. The lack of advertising may simply be an effort to keep their powder dry.

A friend of mine who works in a major retail chain says that the tactic will most likely centre on the Downloadble content for the 360. I doubt MS will want anyone to be unaware that the GTA game will be a "better experience" on the 360. They did pay through the nose for it after all.

If the price points stay the same I think the PS3 will indeed catch the 360 but given their exposure my instincts say that MS will do there best to forge ahead in Q2.

I think an agressive advertising campaign around GTA and an extremely attractive bundle deal are the least we can expect.

Lord alone knows what will happen if Sony counter with there own price drop. There could be blood on the streets.