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Metallicube on 11 March 2012
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Zlejedi said:
Metallicube said:

Wasn't there just this same topic recently?

I will say the same thing I said in that one; no they won't catch it. :P

It is a pretty absurd prediction if you really think about it.. You're basically talking 30 + million more consoles that the HD twins need to sell, which are already 6/7 years old and well past their primes. And not only do they need to sell 30 more million, which is unlikely enough, but they need to sell 30 million MORE units than the Wii from here on out. Bascially to sum up, never gonna happen.

The only way I see a SLIGHT chance of this happening is if Sony and MS proceed to try and ride their consoles an extra 3+ years after the Wii U is released, and finally release their new respective consoles in lat 2015ish. Though there is no way they will do this, because at that point you are basically conceding the next generation to Nintendo because of the massive head start they would recieve. Why try to win the past gen when you are essentially sacrificing the current gen to do it? As I just said in a pervious topic, you've already got the third parties in your back pocket if you are Sony and especially MS, so it's not like it would make a difference if you try and "win" or not.

Except Wii wil be totaly dead in 2014.

We are looking at maybe 6 milion Wii this year and 3-4 milions in 2013.

So if Sony and MS mantain 12+ milions sales they will be only around 15 milions behind with at least 2-3 years more of sales.

You've got some pretty conservative numbers for the Wii while being extremely generous to the HD consoles.. Wii sold about 12 million last year according to this site, and this is with basically Zelda and virtually nothing else.. What would cause this sudden drastic drop where sales slow by 50%? Not to mention, there are still a few games left that can make a least a bit of an impact, like the Last Story, Xenoblade (in America), Mario Party 9, the all-but-confirmed Epic Mickey 2, and DQX. Then you've also got the inevitable price drop and probably future bundles. And who knows what could be unveiled at E3..

Don't get me wrong, Wii has absolutely run its course already, but my point being there is enough for at least a trickling of sales to come in for a couple of years. 6 million this year and 3-4 million next? Come on, this isn't the Gamecube were talking here.. If anything Wii has had a similar trajectory to PS2, which has continued to put up decent numbers even after PS3 came out and PS2's library was scarce. I don't get where people keep getting this idea that one day Wii is just going to magically hit a wall and stop selling completely, and the HD consoles are gonna sell for eternity.

And who's to say the PS3 and 360 won't drop off? If their predecessors come out next year as I think they will, there is no way 12+ million happens. Anyway, we can play the what if game till we're blue in the face, but at the moment I see no indication that 360 and PS3's total sales will even get close to closing a gap of 30 + million.