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My bet was 4-6 million units by years end. The Game Cube sold less than 4 million in 2001 and i think the Wii U can do a little bit more, but i dont think it can do as much as 6-10 million because that was the same ratio for the 3DS(12 million in 2011), with the difference that portable consoles sell more and the 3DS had Mario Kart 3D and Mario Land 3D + 9 months in 2011.

I know the price drop settled a huge difference, but the 3DS was 169 dollars and the Wii U will be around 299, besides the 3DS had many third party better prepared for 9 months AFTER launch vs the launch frame of 3 months the Wii U is going to have.