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noname2200 said:
Wow, you've thought pretty hard about the Pujols situation, huh? I'd ask for his BABIP, but it's not likely bad luck is in play three years running.

Actually, when I looked at the stats for my last post, I didn't think it would turn out nearly as bad as it did.  I knew he had a down year, but I didn't know it was that bad.  I did not expect to see so many career worsts.

Anyway...

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=1177&position=1B&page=7&type=full

BABIP is actually favorable for Pujols.  Above average in 2008, average in 2009 and 2010, and then below average in 2011.  It helps explain part of the drop.  He should have a better year as long as...

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=1177&position=1B&page=9&type=full

...he stops hitting so many ground balls.  If you look at the detail graphs in 2011, you can see his BABIP improves as his ground ball rate drops.



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