Well, to be fair, he is right about Nintendo's stock and their losses.
He called recently the Wii as a "fad", and becuase of that and Kinect its sales were declining fast. The same with smartphones and tablets against dedicated portable gaming. The point I believe he's forgetting, is that Kinect and smartphones/tablets can be fads as the Wii and many other thousand of things before in this world.
Kinect maybe, but smartphones I don't think so, people are morte and more gonna see mobile phones as a need rather than a luxury, and more and more they are going to see smartphones as also a need, or at least a justifiable upgrade on what is already a needful item. Xbox and Kinect will bever be viewed by the "casual" audience as a need; only gamer geeks think their console is a need.
I disagree with is comment that dedicated HH gamers will / have migrated to smartphones / tablets. Maybe he's using dedicated in a different context to what I'm thinking but I think the casual gamer (i.e. those who are happy with angry birds and cut the rope asa the extent of sophistication in gaming they are happy with) is for sure mostly lost to 3DS and Vita. No way the casual HH gamer makes up 1/2 of DS's market. But you can bet all the ladies Olivia Newton-John was advertising to with the DS have moved on and won;t be buying a 3DS. So I think perhaps 1/4 to 1/3 of the DS market is lost to the 3DS.
I think Nintendo are really missing a market here. They should take a leaf deom Apple's book. Apple was NOT a phone company, but they had a decent fanbase through first the computers then the iPods. Nintendo should make their own phone. Pair up with RIM so that they don't occupy the same OS as Sony (Android) and put out a DSphone.
I know all y'all DS fans would buy, don't try to tell me otherwise.
I don't think many people have gone from Wii to smartphone or tablet. Totally different reasons behind getting a Wii and a compelling Wii U experience will bring them back to the console in front of the TV. I think Wii U has lost some market share to Kinect and Nextbox+Kinect though. It seems pretty clear that about 250 million is the upper limit for number of consoles likely to be sold this generation. This gen could be the peak gen for consoles and the limit next gen might be 200 million. That's still plenty of console sales for each of the players to maintain a credible install base. I think it will be closer to evenly shared next gen with about 70 million each. But if MS and Sony get their "media hub" concept and marketing right then the console market potential could grow next gen. However if Nintendo keep their reputation as only a box for playing games then they may not be well positioned for those who are looking for more than just a console to attach to their TV.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
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