So now it's a prediction thread, eh? Okay. I'll play.
I buy a lot of games. Sometimes, I experiment on new games. A lot of times, I buy the new "must have" game of the moment. If it's interesting and I'm not burned out, chances are good that I'll buy it. I look at the Vita library and I see some games with great potential like Gravity Rush. It's a day one buy, for me. I see a game like Uncharted. I don't think it will be a game that blows me away, aside from the graphics but I can see myself buying it. I see games like Wipeout, Hot Shots Golf, LBP, Mod Nation Racers, and Ridge Racer and I know I wouldn't be able to tell one game in the series from another, if you showed me a screenshot. These series have absolutely NO appeal to me. Same goes for ports.
I see a tremendous lack of "must buy" games for the Vita. What I'm getting at is this: Call of Duty may not have much competition aside from a lot of niche games and experiments. It's the closest thing the Vita will have to a sure thing. Though I'm going to buy a Vita, likely the same day of the real launch, I don't think the rest of the world is going to bite. By the end of the year, I think there will be around 8 Million Vitas sold worlwide. I think that only 6 million of those will be from Call of Duty's biggest audience (USA). I believe that 30% of those six million will buy the game (a great attach rate for even the best games).
My guess: 1.8-2million within 6 months of the games release.
