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HappySqurriel said:
Rainbird said:
Silver-Tiger said:
Well, if all three go with Tablet controllers, Nintendo will win the next generation, too.
When the consoles become more and more similar, the games will be the only thing that makes a difference. And on pure games, Nintendo wins, hands down.

Isn't that kind of what happened with the PS2 and the GameCube though?

While I agree with Silver-Tiger that Nintendo has the advantage, I disagree with his reasoning ...

When you have a market filled with (essentially) generic products the company that controls the market has the advantage. Having the largest userbase in the previous generation and launching before Nintendo and Microsoft helped Sony gain control of the market long before Nintendo or Microsoft could respond; and in this generation Nintendo will have the largest userbase in the previous generation and will be launching before either Sony or Microsoft.

The advantage of having won the previous generation is relative I would say though. Not that I disagree that Nintendo has an advantage in launching first, but the Wii being the best selling home console this generation is only an advantage if the Wii owners are prepared to "upgrade", and I'm not sure that many Wii owners want to upgrade.

This is purely speculation, but I don't think the Wii U will hold the same appeal as the Wii. The Wii got hyped on the premise of new ways to control games, but the Wii U is presenting something people already know. We know tablets and we know "old" controllers. Combined with the fact that Wii owners spend less time on their consoles than their PS360 counterparts (in the US at least), and I don't think many people feel like they will need to buy the Wii U, at least for a while.

Whether PS360 owners feel any different is of course important to know in this discussion, but assuming that all three will essentially put the same console out, I think PS360 owners are likely to choose something they already have a commitment to, in the form of achievements or trophies perhaps, or downloadable games.