GamrDebate: Is the Playstation Vita already doomed?

[Conegamer]

UncleScrooge said:
Of course it's not. It's not selling well in Japan and I doubt it'll sell well in the west right from the start but that's due to the high price. The video gaming market is highly (highly!) price sensitive and most consumers aren't willing to spend more than $200 on a portable gaming system. Once the price comes down sales will increase quite a bit.

The real problem Sony has to face with the Vita is Nintendo's ambition to move upmarket with the 3DS. Nintendo getting games like Resident Evil, Monster Hunter and Tekken is definitely a worrying trend for Sony, especially considering Iwata's comment about third parties getting more interested in the platform because of the good sales. If we break customers down into "core customers", "casual customers" (= those who only play some games like Mario Kart, GTA, Call of Duty but don't play regularly) and "distant customers" (the ones who bought a Wii or DS for non-traditional games like Brain Training, Wii Fit and Wii Sports) the PSP got a good chunk of the core gamers, a fair chunk of the casual players (due to GTA and people buying PSP's because it was cool) and almost none of the distant customers. While Nintendo seems to focus less on distant customers (because they are stupid) they intensified their efforts to increase their market share among the core and casual customers. They are directly competing with the PS Vita here, they had a one year head start and they are getting a lot more "core" games than they did during the DS era.

Luckily (for Sony) Nintendo is stupid enough not to go after the distant customers this time. If that was the case the 3DS would be selling gangbusters right now (it's selling well but nowhere near DS sales) and developers would probably focus completely on the 3DS.

Sony just needs to release a steady stream of games to keep most core customers on board and wait until 2014 when Nintendo will stop pushing the 3DS because of their next handheld console eating away development resources. That should be enough to sell more than 50 million Vita's.

Good points. It's interesting to note Nintendo's more (in a very loose sense) hardcore approach with games like Resident Evil, Monster Hunter etc., whilst the Vita seems to be appealing to the gaming audience, but no other, and with little success (reviews of the Vita support this). It seems to be that, by doing everything, it can do very little.