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Hyruken on 05 February 2012
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thismeintiel said:
Hyruken said:
What I have learned from this is that old "wait for shipments that will show who won" saying has now died. It is now "wait three months for more data and we will see who won".
And people once more taking vgc numbers serious like they are official numbers.
I'm with gaf on this one the only numbers you can trust are official release numbers given to shareholders.
And based on those 360 won the year.

No one is questioning whether 360 won in shipments, you can't deny the numbers.  However, the question is who won in sales to consumer.  In my opinion, its pretty obvious that the PS3 did.  All you have to do is remember MS shipped ~1M more units than they normally do in Q1 2011 to make up for short supply in the channel at the end of 2010.  Now if you took that away from this year's shipment numbers the 360 would have shipped more like ~13.9 million instead of 14.9 million.  In other words, if MS hadn't underestimated 360 demand for Dec 2010 and shipped enough that year, the PS3 would have won both shipped AND sold in 2011.


The point is you can look at it and interprut it in multiple ways. For example around E3 MS said they were winning worldwide. They repeated it in their third quarter announcement. But these over-shipping things seem to have only be mentioned now, bit strange don't you think?

People are looking at VGC numbers and taking them as gospel when in reality they are largely just guesses. Look how many times we have been massively out. Most recent the holiday US numbers. They were all pretty much massively over-tracked. There is no way to know who sold what unless you look at the official numbers that are announced by the individual companies. VGC numbers are not official. I mean that as no disrespect to the site. So it really all boils down to who you believe, VGC who were 1m out on the 360 alone in comparison to NPD just in december or the people who actually make them and send them out?

If Sony announced these numbers or Nintendo nobody would be questioning them. How many times have we seen people say wait until shipments as they are the true indicator? Now people are trying to say wait even longer and we will have a better idea. Just sounds like changing the rules to me.

And again no offence to this site but this is why places like gaf and the other game places don't take this place seriously. You can't chop and change the rules as you go along.

In sales they are judged on shipping data. This gives them indication of demand. We can GUESS all we like on here as to what is on shelves and what is sold but there is no way to know. If Sony come out next month with high shipping numbers once again we will be talking about how "shipments are better indicators" again.  You know it.