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I'm interested in seeing how it will perform outside of Japan ...

What I see as the biggest risk for it is a combination of factors. Between the 3DS' rapid price cut, the high price tag of the PS-Vita, and the PS-Vita's poor performance in Japan I wouldn't be surprised if people held off buying one simply because they expected a price cut. If this happened you might see the PS-Vita perform as poorly outside of Japan as it is within Japan; and this could translate into more people holding off because they were certain it would have a price cut.