Crucial Points in the Console War..

[TheSource]

What do you see as the crucial points in the console war for each region?  I'll lay out my ideas to kick things off in three steps - the time period - reasons why it is crucial - and what I expect to happen.

North America:

August 2007 to March 2008.  I think this time period is absolutely crucial for 360 if it is to hold of Wii in North American cumulative sales as I think it will (all be it barely).  The way things look right now, Wii is set to outsell 360 for at least 5 (Jan-May) and upto 10 months of 2007.  For the rest of the year, I think Wii needs to outsell 360 at least 4 more months to get North America.  It seems 360 will own December, as price finally becomes no object for the hardware and big releases from the previous months.  In addition, 360 should win September or October, because I don't think Wii hardware is going to dip below 75,000 a week for the rest of the year.  Metroid Prime 3 (Aug 20) can offset Madden & Blue Dragon on 360 for the month, I presume Galaxy will come out in early October and Brawl will come out in late November or early December, so I think the most crucial months for 360 to win this year are October and November although it will depend on Nintendo's release dates and supply, and I can see August-September going either way.  Now, as for early 2008, I think Wii will go back to constantly outselling 360 regardless of any price drop because of differentiation, price, and momentum.  The question is, whether Wii needs those sales to offset 360 holiday gains, or just to pad the lead it already has.

Throughout this period, I think Sony will consistantly come up in 3rd, although by mid 2008 I expect one huge price drop - something in the range of $200 less, so that Sony bites only one bullet, and consumers don't feel like they should wait for another price drop which will be coming soon (none of this every 6 month $50 price drop crap, or every 12 month $100 price drop stuff). 

 

Japan:

January 2007 to September 2007

Early in the year, it looked as though Japan could actually turn into a three horse race.  However, 360 has dropped off alot once Blue Dragon did it's thing, and PS3 has seen steadily declining sales except in weeks of significant releases.  The question now becomes, how big of a lead does Nintendo need to be safely christened the leader in Japan?  As far as I know, no console has ever blown a lead of 3 million units in Japan.  I don't know if Wii can quite get to that point by September, but the lead should be at least 500,000 greater than it is now by September.  The only games that drove GC last generation in Japan - RE, FF, Mario, Brawl - have yet to release in Japan - but are coming in 2007 - along with Nintendo's other potential motion-sensing hits.  Sony has big games - but MGS4 is only confirmed for before March 2008 according to Konami execs, and FFXIII won't be out before March 2008 in Japan according to Square-Enix execs.  Sony has new IP, but few seem to be capturing the hype of the Japanese mainstream gamer.  If Wii can get to a 2.5 million + lead over PS3 by September, I think that race is officially over.  At the very least, Sony needs to be at 3 million by the end of 2007 to have a chance of a comeback this gen in Japan.

 

Europe/Others

March 2007 to December 2007

I really don't know how this one will play out.  But my take on it is, Nintendo's biggest test, and Sony's most telling sign, will be sales in Europe this generation.  Sony, historically, is the only hardware maker to be truly successful in Europe.  Microsoft has made inroads in the UK and Ireland, Nintendo has always had some presence in Western Europe (especially France), but Sony has done well everywhere.  The way I see it, Microsoft does well in the parts of Europe most like America (affluent, English speaking countries), while Sony does best in expanding markets, and Nintendo's presence is scattered about.  In March, the PS3 launch was crucial, because it was the largest single dent Sony could make in the 360 and Wii sales lead.  Sony made a very large dent, but it seems the time to reload the weaponry for round two of catching up is taking longer than Sony had hoped.  This means Wii and 360 are building communities in Europe, and will likely be able to outsell PS3 on a weekly (with Europe as one country) basis.  Europe is also interesting because each console will have one holiday season where it is the hot new item, as opposed to other territories where launches were closer together.  In other words, while 360 will be on it's 3rd December 3, Wii on it's 2nd December, PS3 will be having December number one in Europe.  The two extra super sales months 360 has over PS3 (Dec 05 & Dec 06') I think should be enough to hold off PS3 throughout 2007 and 2008 although it depends on exactly how well the consoles do when both are on the market this holiday.  I think Wii will have the best holiday however, since it is tapping those who do not game, in addition to gamers, and Europe has less gamers (by % of population) than the USA & Japan who could be shown the light that is gaming.  Still, Europe I think will be a three horse race (in terms of comparable sales) for the longest of the three territories, and results will be clear last (early 2009), while Japan is all but set between now & September, and the USA should be set by March 2008...