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Only one thing is certain - the system with the lead will not launch the next-gen console first. They have no reason to - they're already winning, and starting a new-gen just brings about the end of your winning console sooner and starts a new cycle that you might not win. 360 came out so quick because the Xbox got its butt kicked by the PS2 so MS wanted a new start. Ditto for Sega with the DC after the Saturn, Saturn after the Genesis, Genesis after the Master System, etc. (man Sega was always launching early for all the good it ever did them).