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happydolphin on 27 January 2012
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oniyide said:
happydolphin said:

@bold. Fair enough. The best indicator would be COD, where 13 + 11 mil sold on HD twins, and some 1 Mil on the Wii. But it tells us how many may be interested in COD Wii-only, it doesn't tell us how many Wii-only buyers there are, and even less how many may be interested in TR. Think about this one for a sec. This could mean the single-plat Wii owners out there is not known, it is probably much greater than 1 million, not realistically less than 1 million, but in my view there are many Wii-only owners out there who are growing, and their parents may be interested in the Wii U for them. It will be important that it has games that cater to that group for their purchase decision. I have zero facts to offer a number of Wii-only owners, but my wild guess would be a conservative 20 million homes. This takes into consideration the total amount of Wiis sold, the fact that the HD twins have both had redesigns, the total sales of the HD twins, and the possible repurchase of Wiis, and the fact that one home may have more than one of the same console.

See im not sure i agree with the bolded, if that many people are interested in COD WIi, why are the NOT buying COD WII?? There is nothing stopping them from doing so. MW3 has done 13 and 11 mil on 360/PS3 respectively. the Wii version has not even gone gold. That is a HUGE discrepancy.  Yes that is not going to tell us how much WIi only owners there are out there and I actually agree with your number, could be even 30 mil. But here is my question, how much of those Wii only owners actually give a damn?! Lets be real here you have your soccer moms, your grandparents, girlfriends who only bought Wii to play WiiSports, dance or get in "shape". How much of these people make up the Wii only owners?? Im gonna guess alot more than anyone would care to admit, going by sales of JD and fitness games versus the core games like COD or hell just anything. There are 3 kinds of WIi owners IMO. mulitplat owners, core only Wii owners, and the soccer. Unfortunatly the core only Wii owners are the smallest of the three. Now the WIi U could turn it around and im sure it will, when it actually gets games that will be on par with the other versions and thats what the problem was with WII. Consumers again are not stupid, they know when something is fishy, they know that multiplats for the most part suck on WIi, which is why they buy these HD consoles or PCs. Again, not the fault of 3rd parties, they didnt make the hardware.

SIngle plat perspective, I think WIi especially the soccer moms and maybe young uns will go to WIi U. THe HD twins, not seeing it. The Wii U is not going to be that much powerful than either of the two, it wont be Wii to PS3 thats for damn sure. ANd another gorilla which people seem to forget is online, people have invested time and money into LIVE and PSN. especially LIVE. I dont see people jumping ship from LIVE and PSN to WII U. Lets not forget that WiiWare sucks, so there is a trust issue there. MS has two gens of experience. ANd Sony started ruff but are in a good place now. WIiWare?? still sucks, probably worst since they barely support VC. Ninty has an uphill battle if they are going to try to take people away from PS360

All very good points oni. It'll be interesting to see how Nintendo can scale this hill, this never-ending hill, and find a way to mend the broken bridges with 3rd parties, so that cases like this happen less and less, and we less and less have to doubt the intents of devs from here on out. It's really no longer necessary, hopefully Nintendo has grown up enough it's annoying to be a child for so long.