Eh, hard to say. I wouldn't bet on it NOT defaulting
However the new PM Monti has done a REALLY good job to try and avoid it.
A lot of it depends on if Italian Liberalization of it's labor markets can be accomplished without someone getting killed. Liberalization as in old school liberalization aka removing regulations and some privatization.
The rest will depend on the political will of Europe and if they can keep the other main plates upright and spinning as well.
Right now, essentially those who have run themselves to the brink of disaster are unwilling to do what it takes to fully save themselves, so are just moving towards it slower while racking up more problems...
It may depend on if Germany is willing to clean up their messes even more then originally planned.
