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thismeintiel on 17 January 2012
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Shinobi-san said:
thismeintiel said:
SOLIDSNAKE08 said:

the 360 outselling the ps3 in europe is as unlikely as the ps3 having come out on top last NPD. we just knew 360 sold more just like how we know ps3 sold more in europe.

This response is directed at JimmyDanger, too.

Very true.  In just 2 weeks we should have EU numbers from Nintendo.  If that shows that on VGC the 360 and PS3 are spot on or over/undertracked by too little to matter, regardless of MS shipped numbers, this should be the end of the discussion.  I say that because the US, EU, and Japan are the largest regions for gaming.  All other regions combined made up under 2 million of 360's sales (13.38 million) for the entire year in 2010. 

I say its the end of the discussion, but I'm sure some people will be still be posting how 2.x million consoles on shelves is just too much, while completely ignoring the obvious miscalculation in demand because of Nov numbers.


Theres stil some things that cannot be explained though, like the fact that MS announced it was +66 mil sold to consumers, not shipped. And since everyone is waiting for Nintendo's numbers, why are we not believing MS? The fact that they sold through +66 mil would imply that shipments is indeed above that something like a high 66mil (66.7, 66.8, 66.9) and thats only if the given 66mil was a low 66. If its a high 66 sold through then shipments could well be over 67mil and possible a high 67 since according to most here +1.5mil on shelves isnt out of the question.

Another point that hasnt been entirelt refuted is the fact that shipments dont occur in one specific time, but are frequent occurences throughout the month, which makes it hard for them to overship to the US.

Initially i was thinking along similar scenarios as you and others have pointed out. But in light of these facts things remain a mystery, and i think its premature to call it a day and claim end of discussion.

I was saying it will be the end of discussion if EU numbers show we don't have the 360 greatly undertracked, not now.  And the reason why I know it is shipped and not sold through is because no tracking service is backing those numbers up.  With the 66+ announcement VGC had to up the numbers they already had.  But, when the real numbers came out, we had 360 GREATLY overtracked in the US (its largest market) by ~1.2 million.  So far in EU we have the 360 slightly overtracked in France (have to wait for the rest of the numbers to see what EU looks like as a whole).  It seems that the PS3 has outsold the 360 in Aus this year (or at least it was outselling the 360 3-1 for the month following its pricecut and was the #1 console at the end of Oct).  And we already know we are spot on in Japan because of Media Create each week. 

In other words, for MS to have been talking sold and not shipped, we would have to be undertracking the 360 by ~2.5-3 million in the countries inside EU (besides France) and the ones that make up MEAA (Middle East, Africa, Asia) in the last 3 months of 2011.  For MEAA, it is extremly unlikely we are undertracked by much, as its such a small portion of sales.  Like I said above, it made up less than 2 million 360 sales for the whole year in 2010.  For EU, in a region that sells quite a bit in favor of the PS3 (like the US for 360), I highly doubt we are ~2-2.5 million undertracked for the 360.  MS would have made a big announcement months ago if sales in EU all of a sudden shifted greatly in the 360's favor.