Regardless of when it launches there is a high likelihood of shortages initially, in the holiday season it becomes more likely a shortage will occur and that it will be worse and last longer. To a certain extent, Nintendo has the ability to minimize the shortage by manufacturing more units earlier to have an adequate supply for launch; this (of course) is tricky and has a significant risk associated with it.
With that said, I would expect shortages for the launch of the Wii U and there is the possibility that these could last for a very long time. While it is not an easy target to hit, I think many console manufacturers would like to produce 1% fewer systems than there is demand for on a new system in its first year to have a persistent shortage without (really) losing any sales. While I don't believe that shortages drive demand, I do believe they increase confidence in a platform from consumers and developers which can lead to higher sales in the future.
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