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If they have some strong launch games and it's between $299 and $349 (i.e. it's affordable and becomes the hot new holiday item), then yes, there will be shortages during the holidays. I don't think it's really anything Nintendo can control either, unless they happen to produce an insane amount of consoles.

The PS2 and the Wii were by far the biggest shortages we've ever seen, at least here in the US. It was months before any more PS2s were available after the launch shipment, whereas the Wii saw units trickle in every couple of weeks or so, but they were gone instantly (unless you were lucky), which lasted all the way into 2008.

Hopefully Wii U won't suffer from shortages of that magnitude.