| Play4Fun said:
i suppose there are advantages to longer console cycles...gamers don't have to dish out money for new tech in a few years, games are taking longer to develop so more time available for devs, more time to squeeze every bit of processing power out of the console. But there are disadvantages too,like: . the hardware companies missing out on revolutionary tech trends which could make consoles that have been on the market too long lose some appeal to possible customers and leaves an open window for a new player to seize the opportunity to enter the market And yet you are saying they shouldn't go for cutting edge tech next gen... What "revolutionary tech trends" do you think they are missing now? The only thing I can think of is true digital distrabution, which could be done today if they really wanted to. .The gap between consoles and PC would grow larger and larger which could lead to some of the graphics enthusiast console market migrating to PC because they are hungry for better tech and graphics. But if you want to close the gap with PCs you are going to need a very poerful console, a single GPU PC today on the high end is already 10+x above current consoles, a half step generation would mean that PCs would be far ahead at console launch and the gap will widen quicker, and shorter gens that are just half steps wouldn't really help ether as they would still fall further and further behind. Not sure why this would be considered a bad thing tho, I mean PCs have always become significantly more powerful than current consoles within a year of launch and the age of multiplatform lowest common denominator development means that the power isn't really used these days anyway. . The console manufacturers would want to move on to new hardware once their current hardware start to hit the impulse buying prices. And yet you want the next generation to start out at a lower sub $399 (despite massive inflation meaning that it would be $355 in 2006 money) price point where they will reach impulse buying much quicker meaning using the usual price cut trend we could see a sub 5 year generation, that or sales stagnate because they don't want to drop prices. . In the beginning of a new gen, you usually see devs releasing new, more innovative IPs. Not that it doesn't happen in mid-to-late gen but devs find it easier to launch new IPs with a fresh gen to build a fanbase because at that time customers are very open to trying new things. As consoles get more mature it is the big established brands that soak up alot of the sales. I think consoles will evolve into something like a combination of Onlive and Steam before we reach a point where we have to have really long gens due to diminishing returns. We are hitting deminishing returns now, didn't you read the Carmack quote? This is likely the last chance for a generational leap after this one there is nowhere to really go without some drastic change in the way graphics are rendered, like raytraced voxels or something but they require a 100x leap over current hardware. Then a new gen will be the manufacturers sending out add-on hardwares like new controllers, a virtual reality system or a holodeck. =D I'm just going on a limb here, who knows what we'll really end up with but I do believe consoles will evolve to something really new in the near future. That we can agree on next gen is likely the last of consoles as we know them, deminishing returns and nearing the silicone wall plus the age of software updates mean that another generation after next would be a waste of time, until quantum computing or a holo deck which is still 20+ years off |
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