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Squilliam said:
darkknightkryta said:
Squilliam said:
So they know the final clock speed and enough specifications 18 months out to make a judgement like that?

You'd be surprised Squilliam.  Like, I remember a good year before the 360 released I used leaked 360 spec sheet as a basis for a presentation (We had to take an English writing class in our program and a presentation was an assignment).  The specs that were in those sheets were spot on to release; right down to the registers.  If Microsoft plans to launch in 2013; the hardware is already finalized (Same with Sony).

It isn't final until they tape out their final chip designs. Whilst the architecture may not change at this point they can still change the number of cores, RAM etc. Just because they didn't change it within a year of the leaked specifications doesn't mean that they won't. I believe that the PS3's RSX was a fairly last minute addition if I recall relatively to when it was supposed to release, I think within 18 months of early 2006.

The RSX was announced with the PS3 back at E3 05, 17 months before release (And to back up your reasoning, the RSX changed shortly before the PS3s release).  Though changing specs near release just isn't a good idea for many things.  Even changing ram will require more testing and possibly R & D.  For example: I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo misses the Wii U launch cause they're playing with specs still (If those rumours are true) .  But yes, you are right, Microsoft hasn't shown anything off and anything can change before announcement.  But if they plan to release shortly after they unveil the console (Which is anyone's guess, but rumours are saying), then the machine is most likely set in stone.

edit: About the RSX, now that I'm thinking about it, they probably decided to add it a year before its unveil.  They had to re-engineer the motherboard to support the card and they had tech demos ready for E3 05.