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Squilliam said:
So they know the final clock speed and enough specifications 18 months out to make a judgement like that?

You'd be surprised Squilliam.  Like, I remember a good year before the 360 released I used leaked 360 spec sheet as a basis for a presentation (We had to take an English writing class in our program and a presentation was an assignment).  The specs that were in those sheets were spot on to release; right down to the registers.  If Microsoft plans to launch in 2013; the hardware is already finalized (Same with Sony).