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Here's iSuppli's breakdown of cost for both the PS3 and Xbox 360 in November 2006:

PS3 and Xbox 360: Breakdown of production costs (US$)

Item

PS3 (60GB version)

Xbox 360 (20GB hard drive version)

Motherboard, CPU, graphics processor, chipset, etc.

352

204

Optical disc drive/player

125

19.45

Hard disc drive

54

43

Power supply

37.50

25.50

Bluetooth, 802.11 b/g network modules

19.60

N/A

Other components

150.50

N/A

Chassis and related

61.75

25.25

Assembly

40

6.10

Total cost

840.35

323.30

Retail price

599

399


The falcon chipset released in 2007 is known to have reduced the cost of the system.  Assuming an extremely conservative 25% drop in costs since 2006 a premium cost Microsoft ~$242.78 to make.  It's extremely likely in my opinion that the actual cost of making a premium is between $200-$242.78.

The reason why the PS3's manufacturing price has dropped so much compared to the Xbox 360 in one year is because the Xbox 360 experienced such a drop in it's first year of production (it went from ~$715 to ~$323.30 to produce.