Nintendo expects to sell 35 million Wii in the USA

[davygee]

KruzeS said:

HappySqurriel said:

One thing to consider is that a console will typically sell somewhere between 40% and 60% of its yearly total in November and December

But that doesn't really apply for a supply constrained console.

Let's just think quarters. The first 3 quarters you sell 3/4 of what you produce, and keep 1/4 for that last busy quarter. That means you'll sell an extra 3/4 in that last quarter, or twice as much. But this is still only 2/5 of your yearly sales, or 40%. To get to 60%+ (we're talking Oct-Dec), you need to stockpile a lot more.

Nintendo will stockpile some units for the fear of "ruining Christmas", that's for sure. But to sell 6months from now what you've already paid for is not a very sound business practice, especially if you can sell it now. I don't expect Wii sales to more than double in Nov-Dec compared to Sep-Oct, not in supply constrained markets.

Beyond 2007, though, I agree with you. We'll start seeing the classic Nov-Dec spikes on the Wii.

I agree, Nintendo have already stated that they have upped production to 1.2m a month.  Which means that they can produce around 7m until they need to ship them for Xmas in early November.  What they will likely do, is create demand again by reducing the number being sent to retail from July to September to stockpile more units for Xmas.

I reckon they will want around 3.5m units ready for Xmas coming in droves from the start of November.

So don't be surprised to start seeing the numbers being reduced shortly to accommodate this.