Nintendo expects to sell 35 million Wii in the USA

[davygee]

HappySqurriel said:

One thing to consider is that a console will typically sell somewhere between 40% and 60% of its yearly total in November and December; this means that if you're averaging 250,000 units per month (Jan-October) you would expect sales to be somewhere between 4 and 6 Million units. It would not be unrealistic to say that if there was no shortage the Wii could easily average 400,000 units per month, this would mean that you would expect yearly sales to be somewhere between 6.5 and 10 Million units.

The Wii should be able to maintain this pace (at least) until 2009 simply because it will be the only one of the consoles which is selling at a truely mass market price; if Nintendo is successful at expanding the market then they could easily surpass their estimate.

How many units has the Wii sold in the US so far...we know it's sold 3m in NA, but what are the US sales within this amount?

Don't forget that Nintendo anticipate that they will be able to produce and ship around 1.2m units per month over the next 12 months and this is will increased production as it is.

Anticipating that NA gets 60% of the total produced Wii's, potentially, if they sell every one of them then potentially, they could sell 8.4m units in NA within the next 12 months.  So by May 2008, there could be 11.4m units in NA alone.  What percentage of NA's figures are the US though?  80%-90%.   So maybe 10m units in the US by May 2008.  This would mean that 7m Wii's would be sold in the US in 12 months.  This would also mean that the same number of Wii's would have to be sold until the start of 2012 for the magical 35m units to be sold.

Thats a constant 7m in the US alone every year for the next 4.5 years to make it 35m.

Can it be done?  We will wait and see!

I suspect that it will be closer to 25m come 2012.