| HappySqurriel said: One thing to consider is that a console will typically sell somewhere between 40% and 60% of its yearly total in November and December |
But that doesn't really apply for a supply constrained console.
Let's just think quarters. The first 3 quarters you sell 3/4 of what you produce, and keep 1/4 for that last busy quarter. That means you'll sell an extra 3/4 in that last quarter, or twice as much. But this is still only 2/5 of your yearly sales, or 40%. To get to 60%+ (we're talking Oct-Dec), you need to stockpile a lot more.
Nintendo will stockpile some units for the fear of "ruining Christmas", that's for sure. But to sell 3-6months from now what you've already paid for is not a very sound business practice, especially if you can sell it now. I don't expect Wii sales to more than double in Nov-Dec compared to Sep-Oct, not in supply constrained markets.
Beyond 2007, though, I agree with you. We'll start seeing the classic Nov-Dec spikes on the Wii.
