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Seece on 23 December 2011
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thismeintiel said:
Seece said:
kowenicki said:
thismeintiel said:
MaulerX said:
I don't know. If the PS3/360 ends up winning the year by 100k or less, then it would fall under "statistical tie" territory. A victory by such a miniscule number would be nothing to brag about (imo). If anything, I still see the 360 ahead of PS3 worldwide (overall) by the time the next Microsoft/Sony systems come around in 2013/2014.

It shouldn't be just by 100K.  The 360 will probably outsell the PS3 by ~250K-300K next week, but the PS3 will probably outsell the 360 by ~80K or so the final week.  I would guess the gap is going to end up ~350K-400K in the PS3's favor.  Then, there's always adjustments that will be made around the end of Jan-beginning of Feb.

the last week isnt so certain... I dont think it will be quite the same as last year.

the PS3 will end up outselling the 360 for the year by about 1%.

No idea why people are thinking PS3 will win the last week by such a margin. It was only 100k last year in the face of shortages. 360 is up 100k a year per week, along with no shortages, PS3 may win but not by any margin it did last year.

History.  The PS3 has beat the 360 every year that week by ~90K or over, except 2 two years.  In 2006 the 360 beat it, but the PS3 had yet to release in the majority of EMEAA.  And in 2008, the year the 360 got its first $199 SKU, but that was only by ~4K.  I took a slightly more conservative guess with ~80K in favor of the PS3 for that week.

And I think you guys are playing up the shortage excuse a little too much.  We already know MS shifted consoles that were supposed to go out in Jan/Feb to Dec to keep up with demand.  So there was most likely plenty of stock for the holiday season.  I mean sales for the first week of Jan would have dropped to just a few thousand if they had run out of stock, yet it was nearly 300K.  And that was still up YOY.

History isn't fool proof. You're can talk about the past all you like, but the fact of the matter is X360 is up YOY weekly by over 100k right now, PS3 not so much. And yes shortages, especially end of December, did play a part in lower sales last year. They also shifted 1.2m more in Q1 yoy to replenish empty shelves in the US.