jlauro on 23 May 2007
| davygee said: Both the 360 and PS3 will have to seriously flop over the coming 4-5 years for the Wii to have a chance of recreating the numbers the PS2 had....but one thing you are forgetting about? The lifespan of the Wii! Obviously Nintendo reckons that it will last until 2012 at least...but I have my reservations. That means they expect it to have a 6 year lifespan at least...I would sit it at 4-5 years in total with development in games slowing down come 2009. |
The PS3 already flopped over. That said, it's too soon to say how it will do this holiday season once there are more games out, so I am not counting the PS3 out.
That said, even if the PS3 and 360 do well, there is enough difference in the wii, and enough room for growing the market (seniors, etc...) that the wii can sell to whole different crowds than the PS2/360/PS3... The360/PS3 are far less likely to get a significant portion of the expanded market.
5-6 years sounds right to me. That said, there will be revisions... We will start to see color choices once demand lowers, etc... after a few years, probably a hardware rev (like the slim line PS2), where it doesn't change software, but allows then to make them at a lower cost, etc...
