Xbox 360 Vs. Playstation 3 2012 - *February* Update

[postofficebuddy]

Seece said:

postofficebuddy said:

You're overlooking the 'slightly ahead' comment. I've said it before and I'll say it again, PS3 will beat it's fiscal target. Sony already rather stupidly underpredicted they're PSP and PS2 target. Both of them will probably reach it with a quarter to spare. Looking at growth in Americas, and as I stated the undertracked AUS/NZ numbers I think 16 million this fiscal year is looking like a pretty distinct possibility. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see PS3 not too far off of 2 million in December NPD. Looking at Nintendo's charts 360 YOY growth in Europe seems rather unlikely, especially after seeing the lackluster effects of the price cuts in Spain and Australia. Unless MS pull some mysterious wild card to make sales exponentially increase in Europe in the last week of the year. And you mentioned MS's expectations for holiday sales last year and in Q1 of this year. Even if there hadn't been shortages in the USA last year it probably would have topped out at about 2 million in December NPD. if 360 is up 20% on that number like they were in November they would still only beat PS3 by about 500k-800k on what I expect PS3 to do in December NPD.

I rerally can't talk to you, you take best case scenario for PS3 as fact and what's going to actually happen. The X360 likely shipped an extra 500k + in Q1 because of shortages and you think it would barely have topped 2 mill in Dec NPD, it was 1,870 ...

Those graphs didn't include Nov/Dec, so useless right now. PS3 will not see 2 mill NPD and 1 mill is more than 'slightly ahead'

Did you even read my post? I didn't say it would do 2 million, I said 1.6-1.9 million. There's plenty of historical sales curves to suggest somewhere in that range (2009 and 2010 absolute MoM increase. 2008, 2009 and 2010 % MoM increase, 2011 YOY increase). If you think it's going to go from being 70% up in November to less than 30% up in December you'll likely be mistaken. 360 on the other hand has always suffered from mediocre increases from November to December. Even the Black Friday numbers point in that direction. 360 sales for the week outside of BF were only 160k even with $100 GC promotions the entire week and a few continuing deals into Saturday. My prediction isn't optimistic, it's realistic. You expressed a similar sentiment about my last prediction:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4340880

And you conveniently ignored the PSP and PS2 comparisons I made, both of which will be over their own target by even more than a million. Everyone is entitled to their opinion especially if it's well researched, so drop the condescending attitude.