| davygee said: 35m is very optimistic IMHO. Yes the Wii has had a brilliant start in all three markets and has done well to convert no-gamers into buying Wii's, but getting to 35m in the US alone in 5 years time is no easy feat. It has taken the PS2 7 years to get to over 387-38m and this was when there was totally different competition. Also, we have to take the handheld market into account, because I honestly feel that they are and will take sales away from the potential home console buyers. As I've stated before, I don't think the Wii will have a long lifespan and feel that 2007 and 2008 will be it's best years (sales) wise...then it will decline over the next 2 years. There has been 3m sales in America so far since it's release 6 months ago and these figures include Canada as well...so I'm not too sure what the actual US figures are....but to get 35 million by 2012, then they will need to sell at least 32 million over 5 years...thats over 6m a year on average in the US alone. Which means that they will need to keep sales at exactly the same level they have been at already constantly for 5 years....no way!!! A more realistic number IMHO is closer to 25m by 2012 |
Just to put things in perspective... Nintendo is currently producing Wii at 1.2 million/month.
They're producing DS at 2 million/month.
I'd honestly be surprized if Wii sales stay at the exact same level for five years.
I expect them to increase.
