I think you're wrong on the multiple console buying arguement, particularly PS3 to 360 or 360 to PS3 as at this point the ration of exclusives to multi titles is tiny (TBH unless you really want to be completist you'd be spending a fair amount just to get access to a few more games, and with 360 you're talking about buying into paying for Live as well). That seems to go against your main arguement, which I totally believe is correct.
The Wii showed that the majority weren't interested in paying more for more power, and it's interesting to note that the HD consoles have steadily grown as price has come down and they seem less like expensive, powerful consoles vs launch and more like mass market devices.
As such, and given sales global at the moment both for HW and popular titles, I see no real need for new consoles at a higher price point. I agree that a console launched too soon at too high a price point would likely meet with a reception very like the PS3 at launch - and I don't think MS is immune from that even in US. The minority hardcore might shift but current sales show the majority are more interested in a 360 at current prices than something new.
So I agree on the price/launch part but not the multiple owner part. I think a majority of 360 owners will stick with that and a majority of PS3 owners will stick with that. Some will have both and some will swap from one to the other.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
