Wii Could Hit 30% of U.S. Households by 2011 - Analyst

[TheSource]

Wii sold 3.19 million worldwide between Nov 19 and December 31 360 sold 1.1 million in the USA in dec, and like 550,000 in (all of, not 8 days of) Nov. It actually sold like 100,000 in Japan around this time thanks to Blue Dragon, plus another 400 or 500k in Europe (based on sales of 2 million for the whole year in Europe)... Somewhere between 2 and 2.5 million 360s were moved in the same time frame. Wii sold 3.19 million. 360 had North America thanks to Gears, Wii had Europe and Japan. However, by being outsold by both consoles in Japan, and Wii in Europe during the two month period, 360 lost a bunch of worldwide marketshare overall. Think of it this way: Americas: 1.7 million 360s 1.25 million Wiis 750,000 PS3s Microsoft+ 550k lead over Nintendo Microsoft + 950k lead over Sony Japan (December): 1.0 million Wii 315,000 PS3 100,000 360 Nintendo + 685k lead over Sony Nintendo +900k lead over Microsoft Europe 800,000 Wii 500-600,000 360 Nintendo + 250k in December over Microsoft Wii gains over 360 250k+900k - 550k = 600,000 Wii gain in 6 weeks N.A. + 4 weeks Japan, 3 weeks Europe Extend that to January, Wii gains 400k in Japan over 360, 150k in America over 360, and likely some amount in Europe as well. Perhaps another timeframe gain of selling 600,000 more consoles than the 360 worldwide? February looks to be more of the same, as Wii should gain around 250,00-350,000 more in Japan. It will probably outsell the 360 in North America (Sonic, SSX, Wii Play, momentum, price point) and Europe as well. Sony outsold Microsoft in Japan (700,000 units vs about 150,000), but Microsoft sold 1 million more 360's in North America so that advantage is wiped out and turned into a 450k defecit. Throw in November-March without PS3 in Europe, and Sony needs a huge March to offset some of its winter losses. Sony will gain on Microsoft starting in March when European sales offset Microsoft's sales in North America enough to allow the PS3 advantage in Japan to turn into a surplus of PS3 over 360 worldwide. That should begin in earnest in April, but the pricepoint means Wii will continue outselling both....