Tridrakious said:
Seece said:
Tridrakious said:
The 360 won't have another peak year next year. Even with a price drop. The fact that Vita and Wii U will be hitting all major markets in 2012 will hamper the sales of the PS3 and the 360.
Sony will need to have as many exclusives as they had this year, plus some nice bundles throughout the year as well. Of course Microsoft will cut the price of the 360 next year so that will help them. But if Sony wants to have a shot at finally winning a Black Friday they will have to bundle the PS3's biggest exclusives into at least 2 separate bundles.
The Last of Us 320gb PS3 for $149.99 (a "bloody" or "infected" special edition PS3)
Stawhawk & Twisted Metal 320gb PS3 for $149.99 ("Cybernetic" special edition PS3)
God of War IV 320gb PS3 for $149.99 (Image of Kratos on the cover special edition PS3)
September 2012. |
Far enough, all your opinion. My rebuttal though ... next holiday X360 is capable of being stronger, depending on how Microsoft play their cards. Halo 4 and Star Wars Kinect (if it launches during the holiday) are likely to be huge and bigger than anything Sony will put out (bar a new Gran Turismo) Like you said they plan to cut, I think this is a dead cert, so $149 X360's and cheaper Kinect bundles will almost have the low end casual market to themselves. Wii will probably be cut $50 again but even with a $50 cut and a further $50 cut on Black Friday bundles it couldn't beat X360 for the month ... or even PS3 .. WiiU even at $249 will find it tough going against a cheaper Kinect bundle, especially as it's very rare a console hits it out of the gate running. Wii was hot when it launched but was still beaten by the X360. Vita ... different markets. The only system that can fesibly steal sales from Kinect/X360 next holiday is the 3DS, when it starts to truly hit its stride.
The first 3 quaters of the year are questionable as to how much X360 will be down and if it can recuperate it over the holidays. One thing sales right now should be teaching you is not to underestimate Kinect/X360 ... it's the hottest console out of the 3 this holiday (so far) and it's done it without a price cut ... wheras the other two have had one. Speaks volumes.
|
So you think 3DS will take sales away from the 360/Kinect, but not the newly launched Vita? Even though you also point out that they are handhelds and they are "different" markets.
If I was alluding to that I wouldn't say 3DS would steal sales would I? 3DS can steal sales from X360 because it'll be the only other hot casual item in competition with the X360 (And Wii, but weaker, again)
I wouldn't underestimate the effort Sony is putting into the Vita.
I'm not, I wouldn't overestimate it either, get a perspective. Things could go horribly wrong for Sony if they don't play their cards right, and if they don't find it's not selling well at $299 and don't buckle on a price cut in the first year, well.
Call of Duty on PS Vita will be a huge system mover in the USA and even in Europe.
Remains to be seen, even Sony's finest selling franchise didn't do well on PSP. You can have a huge franchise but when you take it away from the norm it's certainly not a dead cert it's going to be huge.
The fact that USA and UK pretty much mirror each other now (in terms of buying intent), the Vita has a better shot at doing what the 360 has done the last few years than the 3DS. Meaning the Vita will have a Call of Duty game that plays much more like the console games than what is possible on the DS/3DS versions. Add to that Uncharted: Golden Abyss, Madden, LittleBigPlanet and the slew on new IP coming that is hard to gauge which will be a blockbuster success (Ruin, Escape Plan, Sound Shapes, Gavity Rush, Unit 13, etc.)
For the 3DS there just isn't anythin coming now that I believe will push sells. Kid Icarus? Animal Crossing 3DS? Luigi's Mansion 2? I don't think any of those can push hardware. But it's the same thing I said about Vita's new IP's, I don't know what I will stick and be successful. But a brand new generation of Pokemon will be needed to push hardware.
Talk about trying to kid yourself, you really list all those games then ignore Mario Kart 7 ... which will STILL be selling next xmas, and lets not even talk about a new Pokemon ... really .. history is not on your side.
Systems that will be selling next holiday are:
PS2, PS3, PSP, PS Vita, 360/Kinect, Wii, DS/DSi, 3DS and Wii U. Both Sony and Microsoft have a very large mountain to climb as I see it the current systems (at least the PS3 and 360) will be much more evenly matched next Black Friday. Don't forget that all systems has tremendous price cuts for BF. This year's PS3 bundle/price cut was very successful, but Sony needed to do something even more (like a special edition PS3 in the holiday bundle).
|
