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June 2014 because I like the way it sounds.

I'm only expecting the PS3 to move past the 360 slowly and to end up a bit ahead but not by much.

I expect new Xbox Q3 or Q4 2013. I expect 360 sales to dip then in core Western markets. I don't expect 360 to have much of a tail outside core territories and emerging markets.

I expect a new PlayStation around the same time. I expect sales to dip in core Western markets. I expect PS3 to have a decent tail in Japan and - similar to PS2 now - outside core territories and in emerging markets. That tail will take PS3 past 360, very slowly mid 2014 I suspect, 360 might take back second place Holiday 2014 and then PS3 finally takes and holds a slight lead from 2015 onwards when most Western attention is firmly on the new consoles.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...