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Tridrakious said:
The 360 won't have another peak year next year. Even with a price drop. The fact that Vita and Wii U will be hitting all major markets in 2012 will hamper the sales of the PS3 and the 360.

Sony will need to have as many exclusives as they had this year, plus some nice bundles throughout the year as well. Of course Microsoft will cut the price of the 360 next year so that will help them. But if Sony wants to have a shot at finally winning a Black Friday they will have to bundle the PS3's biggest exclusives into at least 2 separate bundles.

The Last of Us 320gb PS3 for $149.99 (a "bloody" or "infected" special edition PS3)
Stawhawk & Twisted Metal 320gb PS3 for $149.99 ("Cybernetic" special edition PS3)
God of War IV 320gb PS3 for $149.99 (Image of Kratos on the cover special edition PS3)

September 2012.

Far enough, all your opinion. My rebuttal though ... next holiday X360 is capable of being stronger, depending on how Microsoft play their cards. Halo 4 and Star Wars Kinect (if it launches during the holiday) are likely to be huge and bigger than anything Sony will put out (bar a new Gran Turismo) Like you said they plan to cut, I think this is a dead cert, so $149 X360's and cheaper Kinect bundles will almost have the low end casual market to themselves. Wii will probably be cut $50 again but even with a $50 cut and a further $50 cut on Black Friday bundles it couldn't beat X360 for the month ... or even PS3 .. WiiU even at $249 will find it tough going against a cheaper Kinect bundle, especially as it's very rare a console hits it out of the gate running. Wii was hot when it launched but was still beaten by the X360. Vita ... different markets. The only system that can fesibly steal sales from Kinect/X360 next holiday is the 3DS, when it starts to truly hit its stride.

The first 3 quaters of the year are questionable as to how much X360 will be down and if it can recuperate it over the holidays. One thing sales right now should be teaching you is not to underestimate Kinect/X360 ... it's the hottest console out of the 3 this holiday (so far) and it's done it without a price cut ... wheras the other two have had one. Speaks volumes.