DarkNight_DS said:
John, I ran the figures myself and I'll share them with you.
Currently it's May 23rd and the Wii is at 7.3 million units worldwide. Nintendo just started supplying more Wii's, Aprox 1.2 million, up from 900k If Nintendo continues to produce and sell 1.2 million consoles while saving aprox 300k for November and December sales, then we can assume that the numbers will be close to the following: End of May: 7.6 Million End of June: 8.8 Million End of July: 10 Million End of August: 11.2 Million End of September: 12.4 Million End of October: 13.6 Million End of November: 15.6 Million End of December: 17.6 Million Unless Nintendo up's production during the normal slow months of the year (Summer), then these estimates will be very close to the actual sales data. I honestly expect that a best case scenario is 18-19 Million Wii's worldwide by December 31st. I think you are a tad over optimistic on your sales predictions as they don't align that well with what Nintendo is telling us they will actually produce and sell. In fact even my numbers are on the high side compared to Nintendo's numbers. The great thing about the DS is that you can sell several systems to the same household, people don't usually buy more then one console per house unless the original one broke down and needed to be replaced. I won't make any predictions about the 360 or the PS3. I think when Nintendo talked about the pending market crash they meant they were going to bring on the market crash to eliminate their competitors. Force the competitors into a niche market where they can't make money, force third party companies who can't evolve into extinction. The market crash is still coming and Nintendo even warned Sony and Microsoft before they started to push the crash. Nintendo is going to crash a majour part of the games market again... Nintendo will survive and do extremely well because of it. |
I respect your figures Darknight_DS as well as your viewpoint.
When I make my seemingly "crazy" predictions I'm thinking more on people levels. What kinds of people will do what and why would they do what? Thinking about demographics and motivations. All backgrounds and walks of life. Summer's coming. School's about to be out. Wii has already undone the "slump" of the post-holiday season. XBox 360 is still under the old rules of the slump which is why it's slow and steady on the charts hardware wise. Software-wise it's doing well in USA but that's because of the established base buying a lot of games. Not as many new people coming into this base. It's good for MS because it shows 360 is viable for 3rd parties to target their offerings. But it still keeps them moving slowly in outreach.
People may get a Wii for their kid who did good in school as a reward for his/her hard work. I got a near-50 year old man at work talking videogames with me on a regular basis when he never cared about games in his life much before. He asks me advice on Wii and is planning on getting one as soon as stock gets reasonable. Wii being a natural party system CAN have a similar effect to the DS because people gather around the system and walk away with a good time then thinking about maybe getting one for themselves. DS owners now trust the Nintendo brand and hear so much about Wii through commercials and word of mouth that they may just up and buy one based on its good word alone sight unseen. And the same goes for non-game owners. People's birthdays. Retirement homes. Sports bars.
Parents who are doing it to reward their child may seek it actively to spring on the kid as a surprise. They are looking now or have already looked a month or so ago.
The 50-year old man is unpredictable and may not seem to actively be on the hunt and then he walks in a megastore looking for some lawncare products, thinks about Wii out of the blue, walks over to electronic dept., sees a rare Wii in case, thinks about how hard it is to find, checks his wallet and budget, and impulsively buys after a long time of seeming apathy or reserved excitement. And this can happen literally anytime. Whether sooner or later. It all depends on his timing, his moods and the availability of product.
At a cookout or at a family reunion or at a wedding party or at a informal gathering family members initiated and uninitiated play the hook, Wii Sports. Wii Sports never fails and the people come away with a fresh new novel experience. That mixed with the camaraderie of the family makes the experience and memory that much more enjoyable and they come away from the house with Wii embedded in their minds each member who attended. Some played, some just watched, all come away thinking about Wii. Maybe a couple show disinterest but usually those are the ones who didn't have the gumption to play and could be possible grumps in general. Each member wants to gather together more to play Wii along with bonding with family. Unique family dynamics add to the competitiveness and cooperativeness and the Wii imprint is strengthened with each successive gathering. Each member who thinks about Wii has their own timeline to going for the system for themselves. It's sometimes like example of 50-year old man, and other times it's about improving your skill on your own time to better compete with your Wii owner family member. This one will be a moderately or strongly active Wii seeker. Others are passive and they talk amongst each other about Wii experiences in the midst of family conversations. Memories of their loved one get tied in and the Wii takes on its true purpose as a bonding device for family. The Wii is thought of fondly because it evokes memories of their loved one. Some of these buy sooner, some of these buy later. And they wish to create this experience for their own families as well. Plus the logistics of always going to one house to play impedes other members buying it for themselves too so meetups can be more flexible. This better than lugging around the system everywhere.
Those who took the DS plunge see Nintendo as a good company or may not acknowledge Nintendo but either way see Wii and wonder if it's good too. They suddenly like gaming now and this system feels like DS in some ways so why not? They take their time looking and buying if passive and hunt if active. The Japanese guys, Wii would like to play and that cool shamisen music sticks in the head and the funny commercials soften the resistance to wanting a Wii. Or word of mouth spreads and they may inquire about it at work or see another DSer and start talking about DS and Wii. They both might be under the same dynamic and then they talk to each other. New gamer who sees the worth and stress-relief gaming has seeks to look for more of that feel they got from DS. If totally turned on by DS they mostly become active, if pleasantly surprised they become passive and buy when time is right. The effect happens to non-gamers as well.
Somebody is born on June 19th. What better present than to get him that Wii he liked on the commercials. He didn't have the money with his financial problems so what better way to make him feel better that to give him this? Another one: Li'l Timmy is 9 years old today on July 3rd. I'm gonna surprise him with a Wii for the summer!
Retirement homes have heard of the social, physical, and emotional benefits of the Wii and want to buy Wiis for the homes. One Wii (or more depending on size of home) bought for the homes warm to the Wii idea and lots of old people getting a little life back into them totally unaware of the graphic-lust bull seeing simply a fun novel and life-enhancing machine. It makes the dreary places that less dreary if they are able to operate the controls. Wii Health Pack and Wii Music are must haves along with less active fare like Agatha Christie and mystery Clue like games on Wii. Ah you didn't think of that did ya? The whole home can get involved as the elders solve the mysteries together. You don't have to touch the remote. The fun is in the helping. Old people love mystery shows. Matlock, Murder She Wrote, I mean come on! And old people know how to work remotes if the buttons ain't too complicated. *wink*
Sports bars looking to cut costs for entertainment devices stop buying expensive Deer Hunting arcades and hook Wiis up to the big screen to entertain the drunk rowdy sports fans. Wiimotes a plenty will probably be bought depending on stupidity of patron but Nintendo makes tough stuff so it might not be so bad. Wii behind a glass case and they play endless rounds of Wii Sports and other party games. Maybe some Wii Play billiards for a change of pace from the real thing nearby. Possibly some Madden Wii. All kinds of stuff. Then again with Ultimate Duck Hunting they can have everything the arcade had and more. Wiimotes specially tethered to prevent theft. Party wildchilds like those would have endless fun playing and competing. Hooting and hollering. Self-started women and men leagues and bets. Wii fits the scene perfectly and all it cost was $250! Large groups of people bringing business to only sports bar with Wii and soon that reality will be advertised. "We have Wii" Soon others copy and then bars use Wii in different ways to bring business. Wii competition for free drinks. Bowl a perfect game on Wii Bowling and get a free dinner plate. They might start even naming drinks after Wii. The Wii tonic. Wiiskey. Wiineken. Red Red Wiine. They could be seen as good luck drinks to help you play better. Bar patrons may buy own Wiis to bone up on skills to show off at the bar.
Oh I forgot about hospitals!
http://www.popzart.com/?page=view&topic=695
Wiis bought for rehab purposes as well as way to brighten the mood of the patient. Just like retirement homes the social, physical, and emotional benefits would be weighed. And it's cheap. Only $250 for all this?
See I'm thinking about all this and more concurrently. I see some buying more active than others. Some who buy in the middle and some who buy later. But just as sure as every second a baby is born at close together moments someone is searching for a Wii. All Nintendo has to do is supply. It's sold upon sight or shortly after sight.
Here's one more. Poorer people. They're saving up for a Wii for Christmas presents. That's what my grandmother did for me way back in 1988 with my NES and in early 1993 with my SNES (was meant for 92 christmas but funds weren't ready). R.I.P. Grandma I love you.
John Lucas
Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot
WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!
