Syria, the outcome!

[Joelcool7]

Lucas-Rio said:

I think you are giving the syrian guerilla too much importance. For the moment, they seem very limited. Protests almost does not happen anymore, the biggest crowds in the streets are in fact pro Assad. There is now a guerilla with some defectors led  by a guy hiding in a camp in Turkey and some armed militias against the regime.

In the past there was also a guerilla against the father of Bashar, with years of assassinations against Alawites. The guerilla was finally crushed in Hama and did not appear again. Rebellions are more often crushed than successfull and I don't see at all of this limited rebellion can down such a strong regime without an foreign military action.

I dunno, maybe I am giving too much credit to Syria's Guerrillas. It also depends on whether I have accurate facts I am going off of what BBC reported and other organizations have said. Which put the dedicated Government support at around 40% or slightly more. If Assad only has 40% of his peoples support and this guerrilla group gains the support of the other 60% then Assad is in major major trouble.

See the problem with cracking down this severely with weapons and slaughtering opposition. You risk degrading your support, its been mentioned he has a very loyal army. But when you start telling your troops to kill unarmed civilians some will defect or desert. Once you order your troops to kill the deserters and defectors you risk further defections and desertions. Those soldiers you called loyal may not end up being as loyal as you think. Those who don't defect aren't necessarily loyal either, they simply fear being shot but if you push them to hard and they get a chance to betray you and be free of your control they will likely defect as well.

Not entirely sure about this, this depends on what you consider successful. Many rebellions get put down but start up shortly after, they aren't really dead. Say Syria actually puts down the rebellion entirely, five years from now rebels will start up again. You can only hold off rebellion you can buy time and keep it at bay. But if the people decide your time is up, its only a matter of time before your time is actually up.

You can't fight your people it may work for a while. You might actually die of natural causes but your people will eventually over throw your Government likely within 50-100 years at maximum. Unfortunately for Assad as long as this rebel group has any military capabilities it will continue to spawn revolution. Assad as long as he hits back with huge military violence attacking the peaceful protestors, he will only increase the power of the rebellion.

I think the US's new policy win over the hearts and minds is now more important in war fare then defeating your enemy militarily. If Assad loses the hearts and minds of his people no amount of military power can protect him. Even if Russia sent their whole army to support Syria's if 90% or higher of the people of Syria turn on the Government then the war will be lost. Just look at America's inability to win Afghanistan they don't have the hearts and minds they don't have the complete support of the Government. If the US couldn't win Afghanistan, Russia couldn't win Afghanistan, Ethiopia couldn't liberate Somalia.

If the people of the country are against you, it doesn't matter who is for you.

Then again you seem to paint a different picture arguing that not as many protestors are actually out there. The Government has more support then we are hearing. If that's the case it could be different but I'm not inside Syria and what I see coming out doesn't suggest that the protests are going away.

Keep in mind protests in Tripoli were almost non existent after the crack down as well. There were tens of thousands of supporters for Gaddafi in the streets. That really didn't mean squat, those supporters disappeared pretty quickly when Tripoli was taken. Also Libya's Government tried to spin the news but they couldn't control all the media in Libya, reporters reported from Benghazi and else where, the Government couldn't spin or control the media. In Syria however the Government is in complete control and they aren't letting much media in to cover the events. Its hard to know just how much of Syria's statements are PR stunts or legit.