Syria, the outcome!

[Lucas-Rio]

Joelcool7 said:

Lucas-Rio said:

 

Libya's armed forces were a joke, really. The army was super weak and underequiped. The big majority of the army deserted the first week, not to the opposition but just ran away. They never won a war and in fact lost withs tanks a war against Tchad who only had technicals.

Gaddafi relied more on the "elite units" of his sons than on his weak army. But even with that, they were very very weak.

And in spite of that the opposition was losing all the battles before NATO came in. Misrata only resisted because of NATO. Before that, Gaddafi forces had pushed so deep in the city that its control was only a matter of time. Gaddafi had the war won before NATO came in.

Syria has a much much stronger army, and the profesionnal soldiers are also super loyal to Assad clan. NATO won't came. I don't see the opposition having a chance to even control a part of Syria.

 

As for Israel air power, it couldn't even destroy Hezbollah, it won't beat Iran. Israel was the main militaru power of the region but the gap has decreased by a lot. Arabs countries have still a weak army but Iran has developped itself too much for Israel.

I'm not sure how much of Gaddafi's army deserted. To my knowledge Gaddafi put out a kill order on anyone who fled or deserted and many were slaughtered, the rest either stayed with the army till the rebels were taking over or defected. The Gaddafi army was always kept weaker then Gaddafi's elite forces because Gaddafi always feared that his army would attempt a coup and he wanted to be able to resist and remain in power. It was a safe guard a fail safe so to speak.

Also yes the Government had almost taken Misrata and they were moving on Benghazi. But even if they took those two cities the rebellion would not have stopped. It was spreading across the country, Gaddafi would then have to squash it in the mountains in the west as well as the other towns and cities in the east. Gaddafi's forces could have put up a fight and kept Gaddafi in power for up to say 10 years of a bloody insurgency. But eventually Gaddafi would be toppled.

Syria is different. 40% of the country according to BBC are still in full support of Assad, couple that with his 200k troops and you've got a force capable of fighting a 20 year war. But Assad won't be in power at the end of the war if not from natural death he will eventually be brought down. Regardless of intervention.

Also unlike Libya Syria can't crush the opposition forces by invading a couple cities and crushing them. Syrian rebels are everywhere they aren't concentrated in easily defeated targets. Syria's forces across the country will have to be fighting constantly their is no safe place for them to regroup re-arm and concentrate their fire. Libya's rebels were not a constant presence in Tripoli, most armed rebels fled to Benghazi and other Misrata and such. They secured cities, in doing so they made it easy for Nato to provide support but if Nato hadn't come it would have been far easier for Gaddafi to put them down.

Syria is not in that position. They are in for a very long insurgency or civil war. They cut down one leader another will replace him take one base a new one will pop up somewhere else. The rebelion is beyond containment unlike it was in Libya, also unlike Libya due to this lack of confinement Syria can't turn say the capital on another city. Because the fighting will go on in the capital Syrian forces will continue to inflict casualties on the population. Hatred will grow and the rebellion will grow all efforts to contain it will only slow down Assads eventual demise.

Syria is likely to turn into a new Afghanistan or Iraq. They will never be at peace until Assad is gone if after is even possible. Assad will be constantly fighting insurgent groups to maintain power. The country will not see peace for a very long time unless foreign intervention is executed.

Rebelion is like a cancer, you can try to cut out the infected tissue (put down the rebellion) that might work for a little while but pretty soon the cancer is back. You repeat the process to give yourself a little longer, then you turn to Kemo to kill the cancer but even if Keno works the cancer will likely return in a few months/years to kick your ass.

The only way for Syria to avoid a huge insurgency/civil war is for Assad to step down. If Assad does not step down peacefully then he will eventually be brought down, by the time he is Syria will lay in ruin.

I think you are giving the syrian guerilla too much importance. For the moment, they seem very limited. Protests almost does not happen anymore, the biggest crowds in the streets are in fact pro Assad. There is now a guerilla with some defectors led  by a guy hiding in a camp in Turkey and some armed militias against the regime.

In the past there was also a guerilla against the father of Bashar, with years of assassinations against Alawites. The guerilla was finally crushed in Hama and did not appear again. Rebellions are more often crushed than successfull and I don't see at all of this limited rebellion can down such a strong regime without an foreign military action.