Honestly Kinect does not look like it is doing that well to me. The games are flopping left and right. Dance Central 2 is no longer even in the top 50, and Kinect Sports 2 will soon be out of the top 50. $200 360 deals, MW3 Bundles, and other non-Kinect bundles will continue to marginalize Kinect/consoles bundle sales which are critical. Kinect itsel, as evidenced by Kinect Adventures sales is no longer selling crazy amounts.
I think 360 only looks really good right now due to a huge boost from MW3, but all of the latest Kinect games have been selling pretty poorly. 360 sales will continue to increase through Black Friday but a lot of that is due to cheap consoles deals. 360 will probably win Holiday 2011, but I don't think Kinect is going to look anything like 2010. The novelty has already worn off and there haven't been enough games to propel it further.
Most anticipated games of 2011:
Uncharted 3,Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword, Rocksmith
Modern Warfare 3, Super Mario 3D