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Seece said:
No way.

A) they wouldn't announce it this early, they're not Nintendo. They announced X360 5 months before it launched.
B) 2012 launch is out of the question, Halo 4 is coming and it's coming on X360, they wouldn't launch it on 720, userbase is far to small.
C) they won't price cut this holiday, they'll chop $100 off the kinect bundle price 2012 holiday and that'll be what they focus on to compete with PS3 $199 and WiiU.

Agreed.  Though, I think they will announce it earlier than 5 months before launch.  Possibly at E3 '12, with a launch in mid-late 2013.  And a NeXbox launch around the same time as the Halo 4 launch would negatively impact both.  Some who would have purchased Halo 4 will decide to use their money to jump into the next gen and some who would have jumped into next gen will wait because the 360 still has a few good exclusives left.  And like you said, they still have yet to cut the 250GB SKU to $199.