Xbox 360 Vs. Playstation 3 2012 - *February* Update

[Reasonable]

binary solo said:
So things are tracking more or less as I thought, with PS3 staying ahead through october and into November. If 360 overtakes PS3 on MW3 week it'll be by 10-20K I think. Black friday week will be when 360 can take a big bite out of PS3's YTD lead, possibly by as much as 100K. Still leaves 360 with a large deficit to overhaul without any move on pricing.

I think 360 will win December vs. PS3 (relying on its traditionally strong markets: Americas & UK) . So, I'm thinking the year will end with PS3 with a sub-1 million sales advantage for the year. Which will put the LTD lead for 360 back above 3 million. Potentially 2012 being the last full year of PS3 and 360 being the current gen consoles for MS and Sony means holiday 2012 will really be the last chance of a major shift in relative sales. I doubt anything major will happen though.

Makes sense to me.  If I remember correctly MS didn't only say they'd be number one this year but they also said they'd do it without changing the RRP, which means they must be relying on bundles.  However at this point the trends and game releases indicate we should see something similar to last year, which would then play out as you describe.

Unless MS have something hidden away that will have to be revealed pretty soon (a crazy cheap bundle they will vendor fund for example) I think you're probably pretty close with this view to what will happen.