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Hmm.. after some reconsideration, my estimate for GTA4 is probably a bit low. It'll definitely sell way less than the previous parts, but even half of their numbers may be enough to make it the best selling non-bundled home console game.

GTA4 definitely has a chance at being number one, although my money is still on Brawl. I still believe no exclusive on the HD consoles has a chance to appear in the top 3, and the chance of one making it to the top 5 is under 50%.