Nintendo has (in the past) sold systems at a loss at launch, but not a significant loss ... Essentially, with the average person buying a controller or two and a couple of games they were profitable on systems like the Gamecube.
While I'm going to sound like a broken record for repeating the same thing over and over again, I expect that Nintendo is unsure on whether they will lose money on the hardware because they are uncertain where the Yen's exchange rate will be compared to the Euro and US dollar; and (to a lesser extent other currencies). Realistically, based on current conditions, I don't think anyone could tell you what the value of the Yen will be 12 months from now beyond giving you a very broad range (60-80 yen per USD is likely, with 50-90 yen per USD a possibility).
If Nintendo has decided to release the Wii U at $299 based on a 75 Yen/USD exchange rate, they would probably take the loss to preserve this price point if the exchange rate drops as low as 65 Yen/USD, and they would potentially increase the price (while still taking a loss) to $349 if the exchange rate dropped below 60 Yen/USD. Being that no one can accurately predict where the exchange rate will be, Nintendo can't confirm whether they will take a loss or not.
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