WW UP 22nd of October

[Troll_Whisperer]

Conegamer said:

Alby_da_Wolf said:

PS3 and XB360 have very irregular curves, heavily influenced by big HW moving events, like price cuts, big games releases, special offers at major chains of stores, etc, so we can predict very good holiday sales thanks to many SW releases, but we can't safely predict a trend.

Wii, OTOH, shows a very regular curve that even before big Xmas games releases suggests it could grow to very nice Xmas sales this year too.

Which one will sell more between BF and the end of the year? Really impossible to predict right now, but I dare to predict a big Xmas for each one. And while the year is by now lost for Wii, we can't rule it out as a possible winner of those last five weeks of the year.

How is the year 'lost' for the Wii? It's ahead of the 360 and less than 1mil behind the PS3 (and will likely end up around 1mil behind the PS3 for Zelda release), and the holidays for the PS3 have traditionally been best for the Wii and worst for the PS3. We can't rule out the possibility, albeit slim, that the Wii can sell 150-250k more than the PS3 on the Black Friday week WW, and weeks which follow, with new bundles, game releases, budget prices, strong SW etc., leaving them roughly level. 

Note how I said 'slim'. You're likely right, but in my short time at this site I have learnt never to underestimate the Wii during the holidays...

Also, looking at the same period last year, the Wii was (eerily) exactly the same behind the PS3 and the 360 as it is this year. Proceed to mid-November (the week before Black Friday) and the Wii was 120k ahead of the 360 which was 100k ahead of the PS3. The same occured for Black Friday week (despite GT5 launching) and the next few weeks, the Wii widened its gap over the competition, to around 350k over the 360 and 400k over the 360 the week after, which then went to 450k and 500k, and then 350k and 530k, and finally 430k and 550k for the week up to Christmas. The final wek of the year was then much slimmer, with the PS3 only 60k behind the Wii, and the 360 100k. 

A quick bit of Maths shows the Wii was well over 2mil ahead of the PS3 in the weeks we have left, so why can't the same happen this year, as it has a lower price, better SW and more advertising going for it, Remember, the 360 had Kinect as well, and it was still around 2mil behind the Wii in the same time. Even half the advantage will put the Wii in first.

Just a thought.

(3DS will beat them all anyway )

Not that I disagree with the Wii having a very good holiday season, but the bolded isn't true.

The Wii is 0.4m behid 360 and 1.7m behind PS3 so far this year.