non-gravity said:
That's a lot of question lol where to begin. Note that my own predictions may not agree yet with what I state below. Wii is more casual meaning it's bound to do better during the holidays. It think it'll hold at Q1-3. PS3 has seen quite some adjustments for the post-price cut numbers, but if they hold at Q1-3 that would be their biggest holiday yet. PS3 has less of the casual market. As for the weak exclusives in 2010, it had GT5 which is still pretty huge. X360 has a pretty good casual market share in the Americas. I'm thinking around 5.8 is ok. I think everyone is thinking 3DS will become attractive to the casual with Mario Kart and Super Mario which will make it explode. If you low-ball it and you're right you'll get massive points otherwise everyone else it right and you'll be last :). |
Wii is more casual, but the problem is that they are their own enemy. How many wii's are going to sell that haven't sold yet? Casuals are going to want the new gadget. Wii is 5 years old now, and every console has a fitness game now, and let's face it, wii is driven by the wii fit'ers. With no big casual draw on the horizon, it's looking dire. Add to that that they introduced the new gadget, the 3DS, which is going to steal attention, and everyone knows wii2 is on the horizon...even the casuals. Suffice to say, 5.8 sounds right to me, unless we see some kind of pricedrop, which is dubious.
What are these adjustments for ps3 btw? Up or down? It looks like the gap closed a bit (finally broke the 3m barrier, lol) I doubt they will hold at Q1-3, but for a lot of people, Bluray is becoming a big deal, and HD is reaching a stronghold. Add to that, Uncharted has now become THE franchise to play. FF is going to sell several hundred thousand on its own in Japan, and with Battlefield's media attention, the new ps3 bundle is going to be fantastic. And yes, a gt5 is huge, but FF, UNcharted 3, and the battlefield bundle combined will be bigger. 5 of the last 11 weeks see huge games on the ps3. It is going to take the first 3 weeks, turn them into typical week 4s, boost typical 4 to typical 6, 5 to 7, and 7,8,9,10 will have an extra 50-100 thousand each. Right there we're looking at 500-700 thousand more units (mostly from hitting so many big games all at once ie sum is greater than the individual constituents combined). Then we add in the fact that the price was recently dropped, and we're talking 1m+ total boost of course we should subtract 2-300 thousand for gt5 last year and factor in the 8% yoy drop....I'm thinking ~500k over holiday last year, which would mean I'm off by about 200k, which could fit in perfectly with my week 10, and a little shuffling around.
Xbox I think will hold at 5.8 and maybe see some increase. I'm betting that it won't, but I do feel like a price derp is incoming on a kinect bundle, and of course, walmart gives free 100$ gift cards every year with a 360 so... But, 360 had a big year last holiday with lots of games, kinect, redesign, pricedrop.
Oh and yeah, I just don't see that much interest in the 3ds. People are going a little overboard, I think. It's a good console, and definitely worth buying (even if just for being able to take 3d pictures), but DS style weeks in the holidays? Maybe, maybe not. I'm thinking not. At least not with the DS still on the market.
