New Xbox getting Blu-ray?

[zarx]

Joelcool7 said:

zarx said:

Despite growth in digital distrabution Blu-Ray is still likely to be the primary movie distrabution medium in 3-5 years (then digital will take over in 6-8) so if they want to push themselves as a multimedia hub at launch they will need Blu-Ray there just isn't any other viable option right now, HD-DVD is dead and production would end up more expensive, internet infrastructure just isn't ready for digital on a global scale there is not really any choice now. 

MS backed HD-DVD over Blu-Ray because they had a bigger stake in HD-DVD as all the interactive parts of the spec ran on a MS system where as Blu-Ray uses Java. They didn't try to push Blu-Ray on Xbox 360 as add-ons wouldn't be very cost effective and Blu-Ray addaption has been slow and DVD is still the primary medium for movies. 

And like I said before MS are not out to kill Sony they work together on far to many things, their home console devisions may be competing but the movie devision of Sony would be the ones they would be indirectly paying a small fraction of the cost of the Blu-Ray drive. The fact that money is going to Sony won't ever be a major factor in the decision ether, they will ether go Blu-Ray or all digital and all digital isn't a real option yet.

Good argument, however DVD is still alive and well.

While I believe BluRay will inevitably over take DVD, by the time it does Digital Distribution in films will be far higher. In fact digital distribution and streaming is already taking out a lot of the movie retailers. I have heard personally from the manager at my local FutureShop that their sales of physical media are dropping almost every month except the winter months.

NetFlix and such seem to be where movies are going. Unlike games you don't need to have a massive hard drive and my sister can play HD Netflix films with DSL. Yes having BluRay would open them up to some consumers. But not as many as you'd think DVD remains the primary format and even with HD will likely remain in power another 2-3 years before BluRay fully replaces it. By the time BluRay has fully replaced it as the physical format the streaming and DD film industry will be far larger as well.

So when would BluRay actually be beneficial? About 2-3 years into the Nex-box's life span. However as mentioned by the time it over takes DVD , DD in film will be big enough to compensate for the loss.

As for Microsoft's intent to crush Sony. This is based on many factors including the fact my Uncle on my American side works for Microsoft in  Redmond and used to be at their Seattle office. He told me years ago when DreamCast got Microsoft's operating system that Microsoft was going to enter the industry. He said Microsoft saw Sony as a direct threat to PC and that Microsoft thought Sony was planning to go after them. Xbox apparently was a three phase plan executed to prevent Sony from entering the PC industry.

Now would Microsoft support Sony Pictures? I don't know I have never talked to a Microsoft employee about Sony pictures. But being a division of Sony I would conclude that Microsoft probably would like to avoid giving them money if at all possible. As I said DVD was already a big move and at the time it was necessary but this new generation it might not be.

Also Microsoft has undoubtedly been watching Nintendo. Nintendo proved with Wii you didn't need a physical film format to succeed. In fact NetFlix was most successful on Wii for a while. I have no doubt that Microsoft has taken notes and this leads even further in the direction away from BluRay.

I honestly think Microsoft will have its own disk format to reveal. It may be very similar to a BluRay disk but it will be the primary format for games on Nex-Box. No I don't think they will try to make it a movie format that war is over, but look at Nintendo's success with its own formats in the past.

Don't confuse the USA with the world, in the USA, Japan, UK and parts of europe the internet is strong but globally physical is still king. As for revenue DVD still has the advantage of a massive back catalog, if you look at the split for new releases the picture is a bit different

US DVD Sales Chart for Week Ending Oct 9, 2011

Rank	Prev. Rank	Title	Units this Week	% Change	Total Units	Sales this Week	Total Sales	Weeks in Release
1	(-)	Fast Five	851,448	-.-%	851,448	$13,921,175	$13,921,175	1
2	(1)	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	628,113	-15.3%	1,369,374	$10,671,640	$24,711,123	2
3	(2)	Bridesmaids	214,820	-36.5%	1,840,173	$3,557,419	$29,533,291	3
4	(3)	Spooky Buddies	113,668	-33.1%	628,200	$1,931,219	$10,056,439	3
5	(-)	Scream 4	111,455	-.-%	111,455	$1,777,707	$1,777,707	1
6	(6)	Thor	74,842	-6.5%	936,327	$1,234,145	$16,228,146	4
7	(5)	X-Men: First Class	65,902	-18.5%	1,142,068	$1,058,386	$20,033,506	5
8	(4)	How I Met Your Mother: Season Six	53,775	-37.4%	139,613	$1,343,837	$3,733,567	2
9	(8)	Dumbo	49,384	-18.6%	-	$863,726	-	937
10	(9)	Barbie: Princess Charm School	40,614	-10.6%	392,349	$556,586	$5,128,051	4
11	(10)	Rio	33,121	0.0%	3,153,514	$496,484	$47,544,099	10
12	(-)	Fast & Furious	31,674	-.-%	3,359,527	$474,477	$54,402,167	115
13	(15)	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	28,949	25.6%	9,787,156	$390,522	$220,810,999	103
14	(7)	Jeff Dunham: Controlled Chaos	28,779	-59.9%	100,607	$354,269	$1,238,472	2
15	(11)	Modern Family: The Complete Second Season	28,218	-7.4%	150,074	$846,258	$4,500,719	3
16	(22)	Transformers	28,013	55.5%	16,233,695	$290,576	$292,165,658	208
17	(20)	Hocus Pocus	27,715	48.5%	-	$229,480	-	488
18	(26)	Barney's Halloween Party	22,761	77.5%	256,530	$165,700	$1,680,238	110
19	(19)	Mrs. Doubtfire	22,349	9.6%	-	$203,888	-	813
20	(13)	The Big Bang Theory: The Complete Fourth Season	20,926	-16.0%	319,934	$591,787	$8,829,950	4
21	(12)	Glee: The Complete Second Season	18,729	-30.4%	208,295	$664,692	$7,035,333	4
22	(16)	Hanna	17,346	-23.3%	287,596	$271,118	$4,972,480	5
23	(-)	Spookley the Square Pumpkin	16,337	-.-%	-	$141,338	-	318
24	(14)	It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia: Season Six	15,145	-37.6%	140,722	$340,611	$3,124,096	4
25	(18)	Castle: The Complete Third Season	14,134	-31.9%	105,813	$458,931	$3,391,742	3
26	(28)	House, M.D.: Season Seven	13,741	12.3%	191,859	$473,927	$6,990,439	6
27	(23)	Madea's Big Happy Family	12,892	-16.2%	539,158	$207,948	$8,680,601	6
28	(-)	Paranormal Activity 2	11,865	-.-%	912,157	$182,128	$14,777,853	35
29	(25)	Tangled	11,572	-13.8%	6,315,309	$176,820	$96,939,291	28
30	(17)	Beauty and the Beast	11,239	-48.4%	-	$219,967	-	470

Weekly Domestic Blu-ray Sales Chart for Week Ending October 9, 2011

Rank	Prev. Rank	Title	Units this Week	% Change	Total units	Sales this Week	Total Sales	Weeks in Release
1	(-)	The Lion King	1,571,268		-	$46,462,395	-	867
2	(-)	Fast Five	1,127,385		1,127,385	$23,111,388	$23,111,388	1
3	1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	832,615	-36.19%	2,137,358	$18,309,202	$45,643,568	2
4	3	Thor	94,119	+28.81%	1,027,700	$3,051,336	$29,438,495	4
5	2	Bridesmaids	83,906	-40.89%	770,434	$2,096,804	$17,853,589	3
6	(-)	Pulp Fiction	77,621		-	$1,008,292	-	814
7	(-)	Scream 4	74,164		74,164	$1,682,778	$1,682,778	1
8	(-)	African Cats	52,952		52,952	$1,096,101	$1,096,101	1
9	4	Star Wars: The Complete Saga (Episodes I-VI)	52,323	-23.76%	916,549	$4,274,807	$70,940,764	2
10	5	X-Men: First Class	51,695	-14.43%	1,108,759	$1,225,165	$26,880,153	5

as you can see for new release titles Blu-ray revenue is well ahead of DVD for the top 10, as the Blu-ray catalog fills in it will rapidly overtake DVD.

as you can see Blu-ray is at least as important as digital right now. In Europe the picture is much better for Blu-ray