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Wasn't Kinect supposed to move 20 million guaranteed by the end of 2011? I remember countless arguments about it. I was one of those who said it could not be done. Are people expecting it to sell near ten million or more in the last quarter without any substantial software to move it (still waiting for that to be honest)?

No, Kinect and Move will mostly be remembered as something (note that I say "something of" before anyone attacks me) of a swing and a miss imo.