Predict Wii's lifetime sales?

[superchunk]

Well, its at 88m now. Still has 3 months left in the year and these are the biggest months for the market, especially Nintendo consoles.

2008 oct-dec = 11m
2009 oct-dec = 12m
2010 oct-dec = 9m

My guess with good bundles we'll see about 7m over oct-dec 2011.

That means Wii will end around 95m for 2011.

WiiU won't launch until holiday 2012.. after another $50 price cut for Wii and the Wii should hit about 13m for 2011 ... so I'd guess Wii will have about another 10m in 2012. Making the new total around 105m.

At this point you have a slowly declining Wii sales as WiiU and other next-gen machines launch. Wii will always remain profitable so there is no reason Nintendo will cut its life short... so it will probably live until 2015 or so.

I'd guess that in those last 3 years it will probably manage another 10m-15m... putting it around 120m lifetime... give or take a little.

Not what I predicted in 2009... but the complete withdrawal of all 3rd party support completely killed its chances of beating the PS2 as home console sales leader in the long run... and at that time I was sure 3rd party support was coming. However, they just didn't want to downgrade systems and PS360/PC remained sustainable for them.