For Wii U i think that if Nintendo keeps appealing to the casual crowd in a original way (the controller is, again, a plus) and if in the first two years Wii U gets all the hardcore titles (specially beneficial if the controller is put to good use) plus a few great exclusives i think that even if sales don`t explode like they did with Wii, i think Nintendo has a great shot of deluting that success throught the years of the console. At least i think that Wii U will reach the point Wii is in now.
For PS4 and Xbox720, is hard to tell. Both of them pratically had the core market of PS2 for themselves - to me the great reason why they both did so great so far. Again, if Wii U gets a hold on their market, they might risk losing marketshare. Two questions are to be made: can they also attract the casual market? Will they be innovators like Wii - and Wii U to some extent - was?
If they can do this, even if they lose a bit of the core market to Nintendo they will probably be able to steal a bit of the casual market from Nintendo.
In the end, it`s all about games, being attractive to all kinds of gamers and, of course, the price of consoles.
Overall, i think that they might sell a bit less.
About digital purchases. I think the console market isn`t ready to go 50/50 on retail vs digital, but i think all of them will try to raise the bar on this one. The who adds some form of cloud service will probably standout the most.
On more "appstore" kind of games. Given that WiiU`s controller is appropriate for those kind of users, i think Nintendo has a market there willing to use that kind of service, given that Nintendo provides one.
Let`s see what MS, Sony and Nintendo announce in regards to this.
About handhelds... honestly i think that the market will shrink. Nintendo will, of course, be the one who suffers the most but not because of the rise of smartphones and tablets and at the same time because of that.
I don`t see 3DS and Vita as a next step in handhel gaming, more of an evolution and because of that both consoles might lose some gamers.
If both consoles had a service like appstore, with the same business model, i think it would put them on the map. At least that.
It`s still very early and both Nintendo and Sony might in one year or two present some kind of game that makes them sell above expectations. Who knows?
