i think things will be allot different next gen. if Sony can continue to release the blockbuster first party ip, then they will have a big advantage, but the marketing will have to be there as well and they'll have to do the one thing PS2 did that the PS3 didn't and thats release a game in every genre exclusively on PS3 making sure that the appeal is there.
WiiU is just like the Wii and will attract many of the casual it did this gen. but not all of them. Nintendo is blind and lacking a direction games wise so if they want the hardcore back then third party is not the way to go cause gamers can get that anywhere, and i think thats what Rol has been saying since Wiiu was announced.
long story short Nintendo will have to make their own hardcore ip and not rely on 3rd party.
MS has the biggest advantage in America. yea i think they'll be riding high off the 360's succeed. i don't think MS will support first party ip so i think the rest of the world will be all Sony and Nintendo.
if i'm wrong then its a mostly close race, but if Sony and Ninty back catalog from the NES and PS1 then MS could face an up hill battle even with having classic Rare ip.
Vita will be the bigger hit when it comes to handhelds.
