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I think it's a toss up whether MS will adopt a free online service or keep Live for next gen. Maybe they might do what Sony did with PSN and have a free service for basic online play and then a paid service with extra features (I don't know if Silver can actually play online, but I assume they can't).

Do you think they'll bring over Kinect to the next gen? I believe they will, considering how much money they put into the tech. They need to incorporate it into their main games somehow, because it seems like nothing but shovelware central right now.